ABAC Poll: Yingluck increases lead over Abhisit to more than 20 pointsBy Bangkok Pundit Mar 08, 2012 11:41PM UTC
The first ABAC Poll in September showed Yingluck with a 25 point lead over Abhisit. ABAC didn’t conduct another poll until January which showed the lead had dropped to 20 points – see BP’s post about that poll here. In February though, ABAC did another poll. The poll surveyed 2,585 people between February 15-18 (yes, am a little late) in provinces, namely Bangkok, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakarn, Chachoensao, Subhan Buri, Nan, Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Amnat Charoen, Srisaket, Loei, Sakon Nakorn, Udon Thani, Nakhon Ratachasima, Surat Thani, Yala, and Songkhla (which are the same 17 provinces as in January). Survey data methodology is at the end.*
A couple of questions in the poll was on the comparison in the confidence that people had in Yingluck or Abhisit.
The first graph shows the difference between the same question asked in September, January, and February
BP: So Yingluck’s strengthening has not come from Abhisit becoming weaker, but from those in the “no confidence in either” camp moving towards Yingluck
The second graph compares the January and February results by gender:
BP: So is superficial males like Yingluck because of her looks or superficial females like Abhisit because of his looks? A bit of both? Or other factors?
The third graph compares the January and February results by region:
BP: It is Yingluck’s increased support in the Northeast, one-third of the population, which has allowed her to increase her lead. Although, from back of the envelope calculations, based on the respective populations in each region, Yingluck’s support should be about 37-38%. This means they have oversampled people in the Northeast. This would bring Abhisit up to around 15-16% percentage points which means there is still a gap of about 22% points.
The fourth graph compares the January and February results by education background:
BP: As you can see Yingluck’s increase in support is from those with less than a bachelor’s degree and those with a bachelor’s degree. However, even for those who have more than a bachelor’s degree she still beats Abhisit.
Look, a “preferred PM” poll is not the only thing that people consider when they decide what candidate or party to vote for, but Yingluck has a commanding lead over Abhisit. A new election is still a long way ahead into the future, but as of now, things are not looking good (there are a couple of other poll results that BP has not yet blogged on which BP has taken into account).
*Survey data methodology:
Under 20, 5%
BP: Much more over 50s than usual – usually it is less than 20% which BP thinks is not reflective of the voting population.
Less than Bachelor’s, 70.9%
Bachelor’s degree, 23.9%
More than Bachelor’s degree, 5.2%
34.8% are farmers/contractors,
31.7% are traders/self-employed,
8.4% work for private enterprises,
8.2% are civil servants/state enterprise employees,
6.5% are housewives/househusbands/retired,
7.4% are students, and
3% didn’t specify a job/unemployed.
From : http://asiancorrespondent.com/77615/abac-poll-yingluck-increase-her-lead-over-abhisit-to-more-than-20-points/